Why India’s Tortoise May Beat China’s Hare

Intense attention is focused on India’s strengthening economic prospects. With good reason: in 2014, India’s GDP growth rate in real terms matched China’s, which is in decline, perhaps not only cyclically but secularly.

Moreover, for 2015 and 2016, the International Monetary Fund forecasts India’s growth actually will substantially exceed China’s.

As I argue in “Why India’s Tortoise May Beat China’s Hare,” my latest monthly column in Forbes, India will not overtake the size of the Chinese economy, the ‘second largest’ in the world, anytime soon.

However, there are good reasons to believe – many of which are not often examined in depth by even the shrewdest observers of emerging markets – that India is poised to seriously challenge China’s competitiveness in the global marketplace. And this is likely to happen far sooner than conventionally thought.

Like the fabled race between Aesop’s Tortoise and the Hare, slower but steadier may well produce the winner.

Editor: Derin Cag

ChinaDerin CagEconomy of ChinaEconomy of IndiaGDP growth rateGood (economics)Gross domestic productHarry G. BroadmanIndiaInternational Monetary FundReal versus nominal value (economics)